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Ils sont parti: Handicapping the Field for the New Orleans Mayoral Stakes
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But with such a large number of qualifiers, only the junkiest of political junkies can name more than half of the entries.
No worries, though, as NOLAFugees.com is on it, providing you with all the information you need to cash in that winning ticket come April 22nd.
| The Favorites | |
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Mitch Landrieu (3-2) 102—sired by former New Orleans mayor, Moon Landrieu, and full brother to U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu, Mitch has the pedigree to both sprint out to an early lead and outlast the field in the homestretch. In his last outing, the Louisiana Lt. Governor Stakes, he posted a 102 speed figure, blowing away the competition in Secretariat-at-the-Belmont-like fashion. With his wire-to-wire style, look for him to be in the lead at the quarter pole. Class edge. |
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C. Ray Nagin (4-1) 104—defending champion C. Ray Nagin (the “C” stands for Sugar) is looking to find the stride that helped him come from the back in his trademark rally style and best the field at the last Mayoral Stakes, a race in which he posted a blazing 104 speed figure. While he may not have the Landrieu pedigree, C. Ray has history on his side, as no incumbent New Orleans mayor has lost re-election since Harry Truman was president. Though he’s lost favor with many bettors after recent hoof-in-mouth comments, C. Ray’s still a bona fide stakes-caliber horse and a steal at 4-1. Don’t be surprised when he again rallies coming out of the last turn. |
| The Contenders | |
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Ron Forman (5-1) 89—known in various circles as “The Great White Hope” and “The Darling of the Garden District,” zookeeper Ron Forman enters his first stakes race at 5-1. His best performance to date was his easy victory in the Aquarium of the Americas Allowance when he posted a 89 speed figure coasting to an easy victory. Though neither pretty nor funny, Ron can’t be counted out, as he represents the only entry in the race for the ultra-successful Money Is No Object Stables, home to many past Mayoral Stakes winners. His stalker style greatly depends on the pace set by Landrieu. Look for his odds to drop after the Audubon Place OTB begins to accept wagers. |
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Peggy Wilson (10-1) 91—with a number of victories at the allowance level, most notably back-to-back wins in the City Council Classic, where she posted 89 and 91 speed figures, this older mare cannot—for several reasons—be called a “dark” horse. But, stepping up to the stakes level has been, and will continue to be, a challenge for Frau Peggy, her ties to the RNC notwithstanding. Too much speed in the field for her wire-to-wire style. Will struggle to make the board. |
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Rob Couhig (15-1) 85 [est.]—a scrappy competitor, attorney Couhig once scratched out a victory against Tom Benson in a match race for rights to the New Orleans Zephyrs, posting an estimated speed figure of 85 in the process. His stalker style, like Forman’s, will also depend on the pace set early in the race. If he’s in contention at the top of the homestretch, and C. Ray doesn’t find his stride, he could make the board. Not be a bad show bet at 15-1. |
| The Exotics | |
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Leo Watermeier (20-1) 90—Leo, or “the Shaved Lion,” as he is called by his fellow board members of the Lesbian and Gay Community Center of New Orleans, posted a respectable 90 speed figure in his victory in the State Representative Allowance a few years back. He’s a versatile runner, one comfortable both in front of the pack and coming from the back, but he hasn’t yet proven he’s a stakes-caliber mount. Will need to run the race of his life to be in the money. |
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Rev. Tom Watson (25-1) 81— though he has never run at the stakes level, “The Reverend” has walked from paddock to gate alongside former Mayoral Stakes winners Sid Barthelemy and Marc Morial. His rally style might land him in the money if C. Ray is unable to get traction late. At 25-1, a nice trifecta filler. The “dark” horse. |
| The Long Shots | |
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Kimberly Williamson Butler (35-1) 90—“Street Cred” Kim is no stranger to this track, where she posted a 90 speed figure in winning her last race, the Clerk of Criminal Court Handicap. Known to be inconsistent at best, she has the potential to match, maybe even better, her performance in the Clerk Handicap, or finish close to last. Another “dark” horse. |
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James Arey (40-1) 80—Arey, also known as “Fabulous,” is a radio personality and supporter of the arts, who has been eyeing this race since 2004. His best performance to date was his estimated 80 speed figure on the final day of his five-in-a-row reign as “Jeopardy” champion. He’ll split the NPR vote with Forman and the Mary vote with Watermeier. Needs a slow pace and a few favorites to scratch to make the board. |
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Virginia Boulet (55-1) 75—a corporate attorney and law professor, Boulet is a newcomer to the track. And while this mare has no remarkable pedigree or race experience, she has grazed on the green of Wall Street and carried in her saddle bags bills for bankers from the drawing room to the legislature. Can’t be counted out, but must have outstanding maiden effort to contend. |
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Nick Bacqué (95-1) n/a— Bacqué, a 25-year-old colt who has a B.S., an M.B.A., and is currently working on an M.D. and a M.S., makes his debut in this race not to win, but rather to have something else to put on his application when he starts applying to PhD programs and law schools. |
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Manny Chevrolet Bruno (125-1) 56—this trotter is to the New Orleans Mayoral Stakes what “Eddie the Eagle” was to the Winter Olympics: he who makes everyone say, “damn, even I could beat him.” |
| The No Shots |
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NOTE: No official odds have been established for any of the entries below; the house, however, will gladly accept as donations any wagers placed on them. |
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Johnny Adriani Elvin Brown Roderick Dean Sonja “Lady” DeDais Marie Galatas Greta Gladney Jimmy Lemann Mac Rahman Norbert Rome Jimmie Thorns, Jr. Shedrick White |
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| Scratches | |
| Bill “Weasel” Wessel Mike “the Hitman” Hammer |
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Look for further analysis and a betting guide to appear in future editions of NOLAFugees.com, and don't miss the Election Night Throwdown at Handsome Willy's, April 22! NOLAFugees.com: your information source and gambling house for the New Orleans Mayoral Stakes. |
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Giddy up. |
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Jack Moss is NOLAFugees' Chief Political Analyst & Handicapper. Look for the continuation of his series Secession in the next NOLAFugees.com. |
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